Mortgage Rates News: Your Weekly Update with Pennington Capital (September 15-22, 2025)

Welcome to the Mortgage Rates News section of Pennington Capital. This weekly update tracks developments in mortgage rates, influenced by Federal Reserve decisions, inflation reports, and housing market data. 

For the week ending September 22, 2025, mortgage rates declined notably following the Fed's first rate cut of the year on September 17, with the average 30-year fixed rate dropping to 6.26% from 6.35% the prior week—the lowest in nearly a year.

The 15-year fixed rate fell to 5.41% from 5.5%, while refinance applications surged nearly 60%—the highest since January 2022—driven by the 25-basis-point Fed cut to 4.00-4.25%.

Amid 1.9% GDP growth and tariffs adding 0.4pp to 2.1% PCE inflation, affordability remains strained, with only 28% of homes viable for typical buyers.

Informed by trusted sources like Freddie Mac, Bankrate, and CBS News, this digest highlights top stories, trends, and implications. Whether you're locking a rate or refinancing, stay ahead of the curve.

1. Mortgage Rates Overview: Key Highlights for the Week

Rates trended lower post-Fed cut, sparking a refinance boom, but experts caution on affordability and potential short-term rebounds.

• Rate Declines: The 30-year fixed averaged 6.26% (down 0.09% week-over-week), 15-year at 5.41% (down 0.09%), and 5/1 ARM at 5.50% (down 0.10%), per Freddie Mac's September 18 survey—the lowest 30-year since late 2024.

• Refinance Surge: Applications jumped nearly 60% to the highest since January 2022, as the Fed's cut made refinancing viable for 7%+ loans.

• Forecasts: Experts predict gradual declines to 6.13% by year-end, but short-term increases possible if inflation data warms.

• Affordability: Only 28% of homes affordable; rates above 6.7% expected by Q4.

Pro Tip: Lock in 6.26% now if buying soon; refinance if your rate is >6.5%, potentially saving $200/month on $240,000.

2. Top Mortgage Rate Stories: Highlights and Analysis

This week's news focused on the Fed cut's immediate impact, with rates dropping and applications surging, though experts warn of volatility.

• Fed Cut Sparks Rate Drop: On September 18, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed at 6.26%—down from 6.35%—the lowest in nearly a year, as markets priced in the Fed's 25-basis-point cut to 4.00-4.25% on September 17.

• The Mortgage Bankers Association noted refinance applications hit 60% of total—highest since January 2022—while purchase apps rose 5%.

• Affordability Remains Elusive: September 15 Bankrate analysis showed 30-year rates at 6.35%, with experts like Greg McBride predicting gradual declines but short-term spikes if inflation heats (2.1% PCE).
  Only 28% of homes are affordable for median buyers, per Redfin.

• 15-Year and Jumbo Trends: 15-year fixed fell to 5.41% (from 5.5%), jumbo to 6.63% (from 6.65%), per Mortgage News Daily on September 15.
  CBS News September 17 highlighted the cut's limited immediate impact, with rates pre-priced lower.

• Forecasts and Advice: The Mortgage Reports September 15 urged locking rates amid recession signals, with Fannie Mae forecasting 6.65% Q3 average.

Key Story: The Fed's September 17 cut drove 30-year rates to 6.26%—lowest in nearly a year—sparking a 60% refinance surge, but Bankrate warns affordability (28% of homes viable) remains a hurdle.

3. Mortgage Rate Trends: Declines Amid Fed Easing

Rates continued a multi-week downtrend, with short-term fixed options leading gains, but experts eye volatility from inflation and tariffs.

• Fixed-Rate Declines: 30-year fixed dropped 0.09% to 6.26%, 15-year 0.09% to 5.41%, and FHA 0.04% to 5.48%, per Freddie Mac September 18.

• Jumbo rates fell 0.02% to 6.63%.

• ARM Stability: 5/1 ARM at 5.50% (down 0.10%), appealing for short-term buyers.

• Refinance Boom: Applications hit 60% of total, highest since January 2022, as rates pre-priced lower before the cut.

• Forecasts: Fannie Mae sees Q3 average at 6.65%; gradual declines expected, but short-term spikes possible if PCE warms.

Key Story: 30-year rates at 6.26%—down from 6.35%—sparked a refinance surge to 60% of applications, per the Mortgage Bankers Association, but affordability (28% viable homes) persists as a challenge.

4. Mortgage Rate Implications: What It Means for Borrowers

• Refinance Opportunity: With rates at 6.26%, refinance if >6.5% to save $200/month on $240,000; 60% application surge signals urgency.

• Purchase Affordability: Only 28% homes viable; 15-year at 5.41% saves $500/month vs. 30-year on $240,000.

• ARM Appeal: 5.50% initial for 5/1 ARM suits short-term buyers, but lock fixed if holding >5 years.

• Overall: Fed cut boosts activity, but tariffs (0.4pp inflation) may push rates up; favor 15-year fixed for savings.

Pro Tip: Pre-qualify now to lock 6.26% before potential rebound; refinance if saving >0.5% ($10,000 on $240,000).

5. Next Week's Mortgage Rates Watchlist (September 23-29, 2025)

• September 23: Fed minutes; insights on future cuts affecting yields.

• September 24: ISM Manufacturing PMI; economic health signals for rates.

• September 25: Consumer Confidence; sentiment on affordability.

• September 26: Core PCE inflation; key for Fed path and rate forecasts.

• Ongoing: Monitor Bankrate daily for lender specials; lock if <6.20%.

Stay Updated: Bookmark this page for next week's update. Follow Freddie Mac, Bankrate, and CBS News for real-time alerts. Pennington Capital is your partner in mortgage news—empowering informed borrowing.

Disclaimer: This update is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.